Australian agricultural land is on track for further price growth in 2023, but slowdowns are expected in the longer-term
This year will see further strong growth in the price of agricultural land in Australia, says Rabobank in its latest Australian Agricultural Land Price Outlook.
The report says three consecutive seasons of good financial performance for Australia’s farm sector – driven by high commodity prices and good weather conditions for the majority of the country – is set to once again fuel double digit percentage growth in agricultural land prices for the year ahead, albeit easing from the record near-30 per cent increases seen in both 2022 and 2021.
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RaboResearch agriculture analyst Vitor Pistoia
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Supported by farmland sales data from Digital Agricultural Services (DAS), the analysis shows agricultural land prices across the country rose by 29 per cent (median price per hectare) in 2022, with cropping land increasing by 29 per cent, livestock grazing land by 26 per cent and dairy by 29 per cent.
Agricultural land prices were found to have recorded double digit percentage growth on the previous year in all states, with South Australian farmland prices rising the most at 34 per cent.
“Farmland sale prices in early 2023 are still setting new records,” report author RaboResearch agriculture analyst Vitor Pistoia says.
“Albeit to a lesser extent compared to the previous year as the combination of high property prices and increasing interest rates – along with the expected onset of El Niño, and potentially drier weather for many parts of Australia, which may hamper agricultural yields – will be impacting farmers’ appetite for buying land.”
Despite this, Pistoia says the income outlook for Australian farmers in 2023/24 was “solid and positive”, with above-historical-average prices for agricultural commodities granting good profitability and with recent high costs for farm inputs now easing.
Looking out from 2024 to 2028 – with the record highs for agricultural yields and commodity prices seen in the past three years unlikely to be repeated – there are expectations of a slowing pace in the growth of land prices, although with no price declines expected.
“Commodity prices are likely to remain at good levels for farmers for the next one to two years. However, the drier forecast may result in lower yields and reduced margins, while rising interest rates will curtail long-term investment plans,” he says.
“Currently, cash already available in the system and stocks of grains and livestock ready to enter the market remain the key factors driving land price growth.”
For now, the report says, farmers’ appetite for property purchase remains strong, with recent Rabobank research – conducted in Q1 2023 – showing seven per cent of Australian farmers intend to buy land in the next 12 months.
New South Wales, however, was the only state where intentions to purchase land were found to have grown since last year, the report says.
Agricultural land prices in New South Wales were shown to have experienced strong growth in 10 out of 15 regions in the state in 2022, according to the report, with a year-on-year increase of 19 per cent overall.
For Queensland, the average price of agricultural land in the state grew by 20 per cent in 2022.
Median agricultural land prices in Victoria jumped by 28 per cent in 2022, while WA saw an increase of 22.5 per cent in 2022.
Farmland prices in most regions of Tasmania had also continued to rise rapidly, the report said, recording a 26 per cent increase in the median price of the state’s agricultural land for the second consecutive year in 2022.
Based on the analysed data, the report found agricultural land deal sizes were increasing. Rabobank says this has been seen especially in Queensland and NSW, where 22 per cent and 14 per cent of sales, respectively, exceeded $10 million.
“And overall, according to our data set, 11 per cent of cropping and 13 per cent of Australian grazing land sales in 2022 exceeded $10 million,” Pistoia says.