A new report says Australia’s beef industry has reason for optimism in 2025, particularly compared to other major producers
Australia could be the only top-10 beef producing nation to increase in year-on-year production output in 2025, according to a Rabobank report.
The agribank’s latest Global Beef Quarterly says Australia will rely more on exports to absorb the stronger domestic production levels, aided by expected declines from nations such as Brazil and the United States.
Other areas expected to experience reduced production include China, New Zealand and Europe.
The report says global beef production could swing dramatically if weather patterns change, with this being a major factor in the expected declines for Brazil and the USA in particular.
Australia’s “relatively adequate rainfall” in the past few years has helped output, report lead author and RaboResearch senior animal protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird says, with 2025 weather forecasts expecting a favourable season.
“The latest El Niño Southern Oscillation models are predicting La Niña weather conditions to persist into quarter one 2025, before a transition to a more neutral pattern by midyear,” he says.
“This will support Australian beef production. Furthermore, year-over-year declines in US beef production will remain relatively small, as US cow herd rebuilding remains stalled by slower replacement heifer development.”
The report also says Australia is continuing to produce and export record volumes of cattle, with prices also holding firm.
Production volumes for the third quarter of 2024 showed a new record for that particular quarter, with the figure of 1.9 million metric tonnes representing an increase of 17 per cent on the same time in 2023.
In October, there was a record of 130,000 metric tonnes of shipped weight exported, and Gidley-Baird says the United States is taking a large portion of these exports.
Despite the record production volumes, the report says Australian cattle prices have been holding steady.
There was a slight softening in November, potentially reflecting an easing back in demand from processors due to exports approaching safeguard thresholds that would trigger additional tariffs.
With these safeguards resetting at the beginning of 2025, along with declining cattle volumes from Brazil and the US, Gidley-Baird says prices should hold into the new year.