La Niña should bring rain to farmers

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The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) predicts a 50 percent chance of a La Nina weather pattern bringing rain to Australian farms this spring The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) predicts a 50 percent chance of a La Nina weather pattern bringing rain to Australian farms this spring The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) predicts a 50 percent chance of a La Nina weather pattern bringing rain to Australian farms this spring

Changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere indicate El Niño is ending and rainfall-inducing La Niña is on its way, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).


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The BOM’s latest El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) report shows a 50 percent likelihood of a La Niña weather pattern forming over Australia later this year.

La Niña is often associated with above-average winter-spring rainfall over northern, central and eastern Australia.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and trade winds also show clear signs that El Niño is in decline.

International climate models suggest El Niño will continue to weaken during the southern autumn, returning to neutral levels by mid-2016, the report says.

By spring, five of the eight surveyed models suggest La Niña is likely, with three remaining neutral.

At the sea surface, temperatures have cooled slightly, but remain warmer than average and still at El Niño levels.

Australia's climate is also being influenced by record warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

The warmth in the Indian Ocean will likely provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during the southern autumn.

Climate models suggest the El Niño will continue to weaken during the southern autumn and winter months.

A La Niña will improve the financial outlook of many Australian farmers, particularly those affected by the current lack of rainfall, the BOM concludes.

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