Tractor sales for 2020 will be in the range of 9,000 if trends continue - with sales figures now 11 per cent behind where they were last year, the Tractor & Machinery Association of Australia says.
Agricultural tractors have suffered another large decline down 16 per cent compared to November last year and are now 11 per cent behind last year, according to new data released by the Tractor & Machinery Association of Australia.
The full year picture is now down to a forecast of less than 11,000 tractors and the promise of the market holding at a reasonable level in 2020 is now diminishing.
Check out the October sales figures here
A forecast in the range of 9,000 tractors is predicted which is well down on the recent peak years of 12,000 plus sales.
Falls continued in all size categories in all states with NSW at the forefront, suffering the greatest declines with a further 28 per cent drop in November, now 20 per cent behind last year.
Queensland slipped another 19 per cent in the month and is now 8 per cent behind for the year.
Western Australia, which until recent times had been reporting sales increases, dropped a whopping 35 per cent for the month and is now just 1 per cent ahead of last year.
South Australian sales continue to struggle, down 6 per cent in November and now 25 per cent behind last year.
Victorian activity remains reasonably strong, in line with the same month last year and just 3 per cent behind for the 12 months.
The horticultural and winegrowing markets appear to be travelling well in the southern states and this is felt to be a big part of Victoria’s activity.
Lastly Tasmanian sales dipped but remain 4 per cent ahead YTD and sales in the NT are sitting in line with last year.
Sales in the 200hp (150kw) and above range were again down substantially, 22 per cent behind for the month and now 6 per cent behind YTD.
The 100 to 200hp (75-150kw) steadied, in line for the month remaining 11 per cent behind last year.
The 40 to 100hp (30-75kw) range was also down 19 per cent now sitting 13 per cent behind last year.
The under 40hp (30kw) range, struggled, down 27 per cent in November remaining 10 per cent behind on a yearly basis.
It’s been a bad year for combine harvester sales, now more than 20 per cent behind last year with very little being reported in the way of forward orders.
The relative strength in WA is being more than offset by the impact of the eastern states drought and it will take some years yet for this market to fully recover.
Demand for hay has been strong all year, but this too is showing signs of tapering. Baler sales dipped 18 per cent in November but remain 14 per cent ahead on a year to date basis.
Finally, sales of out front mowers dropped considerably, down 34 per cent in the month now sitting 5 per cent behind last year on a yearly basis.
Looking to 2020
- Over 50 per cent of dealers expect turnover to decline, 41 per cent of dealers expect turnover to remain unchanged.
- Sales of new equipment are expected to remain unchanged with stocks of new machinery held on dealers floors considered to be average.
- Used equipment stocks are also considered to be at average levels for both tractors and combine harvesters whereas for balers, hay equipment, SP sprayers and implements inventory levels are considered to be low.
- Parts inventory levels are trending higher but still below the high levels recorded in September 2018.
- Despite tougher trading conditions there has been an increase in the number of dealers who see no reason to change their employment levels.
Lastly, the date for the 2020 TMA Conference has been set at Tuesday July 21 to be held once again at the Hyatt Place Melbourne, Essendon Fields. Full program details will be shared early in the new year.